Friday Forward - Exceptional Management (#479)
Leaders shouldn't expect outlier outcomes on a regular basis
We humans like to think of ourselves as rational decision-makers, but more often than not, our emotions are driving the bus. If you know this, you already know a lot.
This is especially true in leadership and management. Our gut instincts and personal feelings about people often override situational data. And having more data than ever before doesn’t make us any less likely to follow our instincts and emotions—if anything, it lulls us into a false sense of security where we think we’re being data-driven even though we’re not.
A consistent, costly example of this is how leaders tend to manage rules versus exceptions. Even though all the evidence tells us that a certain course of action is highly probable to lead to a negative outcome, we regularly point to a single outlier as a reason to do it anyway. We treat these exceptions as the norm, when they are rare by definition.
Here are two major examples of how this trips leaders up.
The first relates to counteroffers: when an employee hands in their resignation and the company responds by offering a raise or promotion. The data says the majority of employees who accept a counteroffer leave the company within 18 to 24 months anyway. A counteroffer doesn’t fix the employee’s issues with the company, and a threat to leave may irreparably break trust between the company and the employee.
Counteroffers are costly measures that rarely work; and yet, many leaders continue making them. In most cases, those leaders point to the one or two cases where they made a counteroffer and the employee remained on the team for years as a high performer. What these leaders fail to admit, or even to recognize themselves, is each of those success stories is outnumbered by seven or eight failures. Leaders who think only of the exceptions and make counteroffers regularly are making a bad bet.
A smarter approach would be to adopt a blanket policy of never giving counteroffers. Sure, you might lose a few people you hoped to retain, but your culture and continuity would benefit in the long run. Employees would also understand that getting a job offer elsewhere isn’t a way to negotiate for a raise or promotion; it is a decision to leave.
A second case where leaders lean on exceptions far too often is evaluating new hires. While formal data is limited, the vast majority of leaders I’ve spoken to over the years say they usually know within the first two weeks whether a new hire is going to work out. Their initial instinct on a new employee usually is proven prescient in the ensuing weeks and months.
This anecdotal data would tell us that it’s wise to quickly manage out early underperformers. If you are confident within a couple weeks that an employee won’t be able to cut it on your team, it’s best to make the hard decision to let that person go early. At the very least, you should clearly inform them that they are not meeting expectations and need to show improvement quickly to keep their job.
But even though most leaders admit their early instincts are correct, they rarely act on a bad early impression of a team member. For one thing, no one wants to dismiss someone when their tenure has barely started. But also, as with counteroffers, every leader can remember a few people who started poorly but developed into strong performers. We build narratives around those exceptions and use those stories to justify giving second, third, and fourth chances
When we celebrate exceptions, we make poor decisions, keeping ineffective employees long after we suspect they won’t work out. Those costs show up in extra coaching, poor deliverables, culture drag, and missed opportunities to hire the right person sooner.
Here’s the bottom line: if something doesn’t work 80% of the time, do it zero percent of the time. Especially if it’s a decision that repeats itself. Emotionally, we’re drawn to the exception, but rationally we’re likely stuck with the rule.
The challenge for so many leaders is to stop being seduced into managing to the exception. Gather data, even if anecdotal, for situations that recur often in your life or business, build systems and policies that reflect the rule, and execute on those rules, even if they feel uncomfortable in the moment. In the long run, the discipline and the odds will pay off.
Quote of The Week
"When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras." - Dr. Theodore Woodward
Have a great weekend!
-Bob
robertglazer.com
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Outstanding perspective. It's hard as a leader or manager to navigate through emotions, especially when you want people to succeed--for their well-being and to "prove" yourself correct (in either hiring or trying to retain). What has stuck with me is the comment towards the end: "Here’s the bottom line: if something doesn’t work 80% of the time, do it zero percent of the time."
Profound words. Interested in your take on why people leave their jobs. My take remains the same as what the Gallup company found in polling a long time ago-people leave due to their relationship with their immediate supervisor. No matter what they SAY in exit interviews.