It's Time To Stop Managing Based on Exceptions

Success is often the result of making more good decisions than bad ones over time. Doing this means knowing when and how to play the odds.

One of the most important business lessons is also the simplest: success is often the result of making more good decisions than bad ones over time.

This should be easier to do today than ever. For many scenarios, there is data that can show you the outcome of similar decisions an organization has made in the past and inform the projected outcomes in the future.

In situations without data or precedent, instinctive decision-making is an important leadership tool. However, I see far too many leaders relying too heavily on gut instinct where data provides a more complete picture. In particular, leaders love to point to their favorite exception that defies the data trend.

This also poses a significant issue when leaders use these exceptions as a rationale to disregard the recurring costs of failure that come when they repeatedly make the same decision.

An illustration of this is professional gambling. Casinos thrive because many bettors believe they are smarter than the odds, and that they can beat the house with bold betting. These are the gamblers who drive the majority of casinos’ profits.