Friday Forward - Fundamental Error (#476)
Success is a mix of skill, preparation, timing, and, yes, luck
Recently, I was chatting with a leader who’d had considerable success a few years ago. Back then, the leader’s strategy perfectly fit their industry’s trends, and they enjoyed a string of outsized wins. But since then, the dynamics have shifted significantly, and those wins dried up.
As I listened to them talk about their recent struggles, I noticed a familiar pattern. They attributed their earlier success almost entirely to their skill, strategy, and decision-making; however, they readily blamed their recent challenges on external forces and unfortunate circumstances. In essence, they believed they’d succeeded before because they were smart, but they were struggling currently due to horrible luck.
This is a classic example of the fundamental attribution error, a well-documented psychological bias where we attribute our successes to internal factors—our talent, hard work, or intelligence—while blaming failures on external forces beyond our control. While this is a natural human tendency, it can also be very dangerous and costly—especially in business and leadership.
Though it’s true that negative external factors can drag us down, we can become overconfident if we fail to recognize that positive external forces—good luck or great timing—may contribute more to our successes than we are willing to admit. The individual referenced above probably is smart and capable, but their prior success was likely partly due to fortuitous luck and timing, and they seemed unable to recognize that their previously effective strategy didn’t fit the current moment.
As I’ve written before, luck and timing play a far bigger role in our outcomes than most of us like to admit. Vision, preparation and skill matter, but so does being in the right place at the right time—or avoiding being in the wrong place at the wrong time. As the saying goes, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity,” and you really need both elements.
For example, imagine two business owners who were set to renew their office leases shortly before the COVID-19 pandemic struck. One leader signed a long-term lease on office space the week before the world suddenly shut down on a Friday, and another was supposed to sign their lease renewal, but simply forgot. The first leader found themselves stuck with a massive financial liability, while the second looked like a genius for holding off.
Were these two very different outcomes really due to foresight and decision-making? No. In this scenario, the second leader had an absent-minded moment—and a potentially costly one under normal circumstances—at the perfect time. Decisions and outcomes cannot be separated from their timing.
A few weeks ago at an M&A conference, I came across a statistic that perfectly captured this reality: A great business sold at the wrong time can be worth 50 percent less than a mediocre business sold at the right time. Sometimes, when matters much more than what.
One of the biggest dangers of the fundamental attribution error is when people believe their past successes are entirely due to skill and expertise, they can become overconfident and make bigger, riskier bets in the future. We see this often with successful entrepreneurs who attempt to run the same playbook in a different industry or market.
Another major danger is that when we blame failures on bad luck or bad timing, we fail to learn the lessons that will make us better in the future. We can only learn from our shortcomings if we have the self-awareness to see them for what they are.
With that said, the solution is not to always assume failure is your fault and success is due to good luck. Jeff Bezos has openly acknowledged that timing and luck were a huge part of Amazon’s success—and they certainly were—but Bezos succeeded in an environment where many others failed because his meticulous planning and excellent execution positioned Amazon to capitalize on the opportunities the market brought, including when the company’s stock was down 90 percent after the dot com crash.
Success is never just about us. It’s a mix of skill, preparation, timing, and, yes, luck. Skilled leaders accept this fact and excel consistently by staying humble, continuously learning, and being willing to adapt when circumstances change.
Quote of The Week
"The trick is to recognize luck when it is happening and take advantage of it." - Frank A. Clark
Have a great weekend!
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Right timing yes .
Personally I do not subscribe to the idea of luck being a believer in divine grace and providence .